The Rural Mainstreet Index (RMI) is a unique index covering 10 regional states, focusing on approximately 200 rural communities with an average population of 1,300. The survey represents an early snapshot of the economy of rural agriculturally and energy-dependent portions of the nation. “Healthy farm commodity prices accompanying strong farm income continue to have positive impacts on Rural Mainstreet retail sales and home sales,” said Goss. The retail-sales index for April improved to 54.0 from March’s 51.9.
Home and retail sales: The home-sales index rose to a very strong 70.0 from March’s 69.2. The index, which reflects bank CEO expectations for the economy six months out, plummeted to 39.1 from 54.0 for March. Bureau of Labor Statistics data indicate that over the last 12 months, the Rural Mainstreet region has experienced a solid 4.5% gain in nonfarm employment (non-seasonally adjusted) compared to a lower 3.1% expansion for urban areas in the 10-state region.Ĭonfidence: Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, along with accompanying global trade tensions and surging inflation, pushed the business confidence index to its lowest level since the beginning of the pandemic in Spring 2020. Labor shortages continue to be a significant issue constraining growth for Rural Mainstreet businesses.Įven with significant labor constraints, U.S. Hiring: The new hiring index expanded to 64.0 from 63.5 in March. Jeffrey Gerhart, Chairman of the Bank of Newman Grove in Newman Grove, Neb., said, “The Federal Reserve has been behind in raising interest rates.”
More than 9 of 10 bankers, or 91.7%, expect the Federal Reserve interest rate setting committee to raise short-term interest rates by one-half of one percentage point at its next meeting on May 3-4. On average, bank CEOs estimated that 2.3% of farmers have been involved in cryptocurrency transactions in the past 12 months. “Strong farmer cash positions pushed the borrowing index much lower than I anticipated,” said Goss. The checking-deposit index slumped to 66.0 from March’s 78.8, while the index for certificates of deposit and other savings instruments slipped to 39.1 from 40.4 in March. Readings over the past several months are the strongest string of monthly readings recorded since the beginning of the survey in 2006.īanking: The April loan volume index plummeted to 51.9 from March’s 61.9. This was the 17th straight month that the index has advanced above growth neutral. Over the past several months, the Creighton survey has registered the most consistent and strongest growth in farmland prices since the survey was launched in 2006.įarm equipment sales: The April farm equipment-sales index declined to 67.6 from 72.2 in March. More than half, or 56.5%, expect the waiver to have little or no impact, with the remaining 4.4% anticipating a negative impact.įarming and ranching: The region’s farmland price index for April climbed to a strong 80.0 from 78.0 in March, marking the 19th straight month that the index has moved above growth neutral. Fewer than 4 of 10 bankers, or 39.1%, expect the move to have a positive impact. This month bankers were asked to forecast the impact of President Biden’s emergency waiver on the summer production of E-15 ethanol. MacAllister Chair in Regional Economics at Creighton University’s Heider College of Business. “The region recorded a 34% gain in farm commodity prices over the past 12 months, but low short-term interest rates and healthy farm income have underpinned the Rural Mainstreet Economy,” said Ernie Goss, PhD, Jack A. The index ranges between 0 and 100 with a reading of 50.0 representing growth neutral. Overall: The region’s overall reading for April declined to 62.0 from March’s 65.4. (April 21, 2022) - The Creighton University Rural Mainstreet Index (RMI) fell from March’s healthy reading and remained above growth neutral for the 17th straight month, according to the monthly survey of bank CEOs in rural areas of a 10-state region dependent on agriculture and/or energy. Farm equipment sales continue to expand at a robust pace.More than 9 of 10 bankers expect the Federal Reserve to raise short-term interest rates by one-half of one percentage point at its May 3-4 meetings.On average, bank CEOs estimated that 2.3% of farmers have been involved in cryptocurrency transactions in the past 12 months.Regarding President Biden’s emergency waiver of summer ethanol E-15, fewer than 4 of 10 bankers, or 39.1%, expect the move to have a positive impact.Farmland prices continue to grow at the fastest pace since the 2006 launch of Creighton’s Bank CEO survey.The overall index moved above growth neutral for the 17th straight month indicating healthy, consistent growth for the region.Rural Mainstreet Economic Index Remains Healthy: Only 4 of 10 Bankers Expect Positive Outcome from Ethanol Change